Quiz

Quiz yourself on prediction with ARIMA models.

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Prediction with ARIMA models

1.

How would you define the forecast error of a model (also known as residual), eT+he_{T+h}?

A.

eT+he_{T+h} is the estimated value of the random shock component, ϵT+h\epsilon_{T+h}, of an ARIMA model.

B.

eT+he_{T+h} is the difference between the actual value of the series, yT+hy_{T+h}, and its predicted value, y^T+h\hat y_{T+h}.

C.

eT+he_{T+h} is the output of the loss function that we use to get the best prediction for yT+hy_{T+h}.

D.

eT+he_{T+h} is the difference between the predictions of two ARIMA models.


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